πŸ“ˆ Considering the current $BTC (Bitcoin) cycle, what is your prediction for its new all-time high price?
59
434
αΉ€3.1k
2025
3%
$500,000 or more
1.9%
Between $400,000 and $499,999
5%
Between $300,000 and $399,999
9%
Between $200,000 and $299,999
36%
Between $100,000 and $199,999
15%
Between $90,000 and $99,999
15%
Between $80,000 and $89,999
14%
Between $70,000 and $79,999
0.5%
Under $70,000
0.8%
Other

Price tracker here: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/

As a cycle cannot be accurately defined by date, this market consider 31/12/2025 as official deadline.

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When it was at $90 I predicted it would reach $1k at the low end, $5k at the short end. When it was at $15k I predicted $25k.

When it went down from the second all time high, I predicted that was it, and it'd settle at $50k.

Looking at the geopolitics, multipolarity is just about here, and the u.s. has failed to come up with an alternative to the failing dollar. With BTC widespread, it makes sense for the u.s. to go in as 'early adopters' (at a national level at least), maybe to poison the well with u.s. influence, or forge bonds with nations that already adopted BTC, especially as a small lever against BRICs. Consider it as an experimental angle.

My highest estimate ever for bitcoin was $90k-$110k, every prediction on the lowest low was short of the low every prediction on the highest high, was short of the high.

My predictions were wrong, consistently. I have ever reason to predict, based on that, that other far more well known names suggesting BTC could go to $200k, $500k, or even $1 million/BTC, are right, because my own predictions, based on what I knew, were universally wrong. And if you can't trust your own judgement, you have to look at who did get it right.

  • addendum: I did call the rise and new price, post-china partial ban, to within a couple hundred dollars, almost two weeks before it cleared.

@DavidAttenborough I think the big takeaways from bitcoin, which explain your reasoning fully, are:

  1. The FTX catastrophe showed to everyone that bitcoin is used almost exclusively for scams. I personally believe, based upon how I was treated in the past for posting negative predictions about bitcoin and how a lot of the blocksize debate and other matters made little sense, that the currency was intentionally designed and guided through its development for this purpose. For example, the Lightning network is an excellent way to hide transactions from the blockchain, compared to the much simpler and more obvious method Bitcoin Cash uses (just get more hard disks.) And the development of "ordinals" and other schemes is just designed to produce NFTs (which have hardcoded URLs that can go 404 at any time) and such for people to scam money from others who think those have any value.

  2. Because there is no legitimate use case (due to #1), it will never have any stable value. Scammers don't care if the price goes up or down when they steal money; who cares if you lose 5% of something you got for free?

  3. Therefore, the only people who care about the actual price are speculators, who drive it up and down based on technical signals.

The speculators make social media accounts pushing "digital gold" when they want the price to go up and then try to create bank runs on exchanges when they want to go short. And that's why it always overshoots in one direction or the other from the predictions and will continue to do so.

I expect bitcoin to range from $10,000 to $90,000 pretty much indefinitely.

Sister market for ETH

bought αΉ€50 Between $80,000 and ... NO

Is "Other" an option because you may add higher bins and edit the >$500,000?

@Quadrifold How do you handle the case where the highest observed price is on the boundary between two bins? For instance, if the ATH ends up being exactly $80,000, which answer will resolve YES?

@IsaacCarruthers Maybe it’s β€œOther”? Haha

The rest of the answers seem to cover all other cases.

@jks I propose either 50/50 for the two options, or other

@IsaacCarruthers it's very unlikely. In that case it resolves N/A and I will delete my Manifold account.

@Quadrifold Not as unlikely as you might think! Twice in the last week the price went up to exactly 70k on Kraken and then retreated. People tend to put big limit orders on big round numbers, so you will get round-number ATHs more often than you'd expect.

@IsaacCarruthers In this case I'll edit using $x9,999 for more accuracy.

I'll also use custom colored bars from bullish green to bearish red to give the sense of the price action. πŸ˜‚

Thanks for the feedback!

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