When it was at $90 I predicted it would reach $1k at the low end, $5k at the short end. When it was at $15k I predicted $25k.

When it went down from the second all time high, I predicted that was it, and it'd settle at $50k.

Looking at the geopolitics, multipolarity is just about here, and the u.s. has failed to come up with an alternative to the failing dollar. With BTC widespread, it makes sense for the u.s. to go in as 'early adopters' (at a national level at least), maybe to poison the well with u.s. influence, or forge bonds with nations that already adopted BTC, especially as a small lever against BRICs. Consider it as an experimental angle.

My highest estimate ever for bitcoin was $90k-$110k, every prediction on the lowest low was short of the low every prediction on the highest high, was short of the high.

My predictions were wrong, consistently. I have ever reason to predict, based on that, that other far more well known names suggesting BTC could go to $200k, $500k, or even $1 million/BTC, are right, because my own predictions, based on what I knew, were universally wrong. And if you can't trust your own judgement, you have to look at who did get it right.

• addendum: I did call the rise and new price, post-china partial ban, to within a couple hundred dollars, almost two weeks before it cleared.

Sister market for ETH

Is "Other" an option because you may add higher bins and edit the >$500,000?

@Quadrifold How do you handle the case where the highest observed price is on the boundary between two bins? For instance, if the ATH ends up being exactly $80,000, which answer will resolve YES?

@IsaacCarruthers Maybe it’s “Other”? Haha

The rest of the answers seem to cover all other cases.

@jks I propose either 50/50 for the two options, or other

@IsaacCarruthers it's very unlikely. In that case it resolves N/A and I will delete my Manifold account.

@Quadrifold Not as unlikely as you might think! Twice in the last week the price went up to exactly 70k on Kraken and then retreated. People tend to put big limit orders on big round numbers, so you will get round-number ATHs more often than you'd expect.

@IsaacCarruthers In this case I'll edit using $x9,999 for more accuracy.

I'll also use custom colored bars from bullish green to bearish red to give the sense of the price action. 😂

Thanks for the feedback!