Will I regret selling all my bitcoin 6 months from now (on the 22.05.2024)?
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resolved May 23
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YES
@BoltonBailey I think it is already clear in the description but just to make sure: It doesn’t matter what happens to the price during the 6 month period. The only price that matters is the price at the end of the 6 month period.

I sold all the bitcoin I had today. Will I regret this decision six months from now (22.05.2024)? I will only regret it if, at the end of the six months, the bitcoin price is (≈> 50.000), and there were no issues that could stop me from being able to access/sell my bitcoin like Coinbase going bankrupt.

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@traders bitcoin is now ~70k which is almost double the price I sold at 🤡 so this question sadly resolves Yes, I regret selling my Bitcoin

bought Ṁ10 YES

Just to check, the only exchange that you would care about going under is Coinbase, right? Like if a different exchange went the way of FTX, you wouldn't consider that a NO would you?

@Thorr exactly

repostedpredicted NO

Another way to phrase this question: On May 22nd, will Bitcoin's price exceed $50,000, and will Coinbase be operating without any disruptions that could hinder the sale or access to my Bitcoin?

predicted NO

@Soli 👍 Might be good to say May 22 in the title, since someone reading "6 months" won't immediately know when that window started. (Although "Will I regret selling all my bitcoin on May 22?" doesn't really convey the right thing either, maybe ignore me)

predicted NO

@BoltonBailey good suggestion I kept 6 months from now but added the date in brackets

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I don’t get why sell all, as that requires timing. Instead sell % at varying strike prices. I think this cycle will go higher than last and then predictable slump. Wait and you can get in at $25k maybe. But you might see $60k first!

@Undox "sell % at varying strike prices" is... also timing?? What if the strikes never hit.

predicted YES

@KevinBurke then you hold. I can't offer a risk free alternative to making more money than you can be selling it all now :-). That would be called alpha.

predicted NO

@Undox in general i am not a good trader - i thought about it and noticed that if Bitcoin price would drop dramatically i would loose an essential safety net that i could rely on if i decide not to work for a couple of years - if it would have doubled or tripled it would not have affected my life in any way

@Soli my take on bitcoin it is a bag holding game. Greater fools. So if you sell and the price goes up after, then it is not as bad as one's brain might make it out to be. It the equivalent of watching black come up at the casino, when you always bet on black.

bought Ṁ45 of NO

@Soli To be clear, the criteria you mention are exactly the cases in which you would regret it, right?

@BoltonBailey I think it is already clear in the description but just to make sure:

It doesn’t matter what happens to the price during the 6 month period. The only price that matters is the price at the end of the 6 month period.

predicted YES

the regret will appear before the 6-month deadline

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@nick by definition it can't haha

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