Will Biden complete his term?
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Ṁ1kṀ46kresolved Jan 20
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23% resign, unknown percent removal or fall off one too many bikes: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term
@MP I agree that 69 percent is probably the lowest at any point in modern history. Not a sign of confidence. Okay his number should NEVER dip below 90.
@BTE 90% is loosely his likelihood of being alive by 2024 (because 4 of the 45 presidents were assassinated, I guess it can be argued that the POTUS has a higher likelihood of death than the average man of his age). I guess that a mid-80s probability is what should be considered healthy for a president like Biden.
There have been 59 elections in the US history. 9 individuals didn't complete their terms (4 were killed, 4 dead from natural causes and 1 resigned). Biden is by far the oldest: he's oldest today than the oldest president was after him when lefting the office. A 78yo individual has 4.6% likelihood of dying and there are 2y until he finishes his term.