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Will Donald Trump complete his second presidential term (2025–2029)?

Will Joe Biden live through the next president's term end date?

22% chance

Will Joe Biden live till the end of 2028?

27% chance

Will Joe Biden Survive Until Inauguration Day 2029?

31% chance

Will Biden die before end of hypothetical 2nd term?

62% chance

If Trump is elected in 2024, he finish his second term?

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They seem to have him stabilized on some hardcore drugs that keep his eyes so wide open he has to wear sunglasses all the time; might just make it.

@Gigacasting 🤣

predictedNO

23% resign, unknown percent removal or fall off one too many bikes: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term

Joe Biden Odds According to political betting sites, Biden is 4/9 to remain in office until his first term is over. That’s a 69% likelihood and hasn’t changed in weeks. It reflects the confidence bookmakers have that Biden won’t be ousted or won’t step down until his time is up.

predictedNO

https://www.gambling.com/news/betting-opens-on-joe-biden-completing-full-term-of-presidency-2369600

@Gigacasting I don't think a 69% probability shows confidence

@MP I agree that 69 percent is probably the lowest at any point in modern history. Not a sign of confidence. Okay his number should NEVER dip below 90.

@BTE 90% is loosely his likelihood of being alive by 2024 (because 4 of the 45 presidents were assassinated, I guess it can be argued that the POTUS has a higher likelihood of death than the average man of his age). I guess that a mid-80s probability is what should be considered healthy for a president like Biden.

predictedNO

Actual arb: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/bidens-term-will-end-with

Arb: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/when-will-donald-trump-announce-his

There have been 59 elections in the US history. 9 individuals didn't complete their terms (4 were killed, 4 dead from natural causes and 1 resigned). Biden is by far the oldest: he's oldest today than the oldest president was after him when lefting the office. A 78yo individual has 4.6% likelihood of dying and there are 2y until he finishes his term.