Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=8.5 on IMDB by 2030?
16
18
1k
2030
42%
chance

Written, animated, and directed by AI

Human prompt and final cut selection allowed

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

Relatively few human-crafted movies make that quality bar, so this seems like an easy no, provided you don't expect superintelligent AGI.