Has ChatGPT peaked? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

Has ChatGPT peaked?

33%

chance

1D

1W

1M

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Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ10 of YES

It's the Pokeman Go of AI.

Shaked Koplewitzbought Ṁ25 of YES

@BTE you should chatgpt up the poll workers as you go vote.

Gigacastingbought Ṁ1 of NO

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=ChatGPT&hl=en

Dan bought Ṁ50 YES from 29% to 33%

Malte bought Ṁ35 YES from 26% to 29%

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ20 YES from 24% to 26%

Dan bought Ṁ30 YES from 21% to 24%

Lovre sold Ṁ7 YES from 22% to 21%

Mira sold Ṁ64 YES from 28% to 22%

Mira sold Ṁ28 YES from 30% to 28%

Mira filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ42 NO at 30% (cancelled)

Mira filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ30 NO at 31%

Mira filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 32%

Cpeter bought Ṁ10 NO from 34% to 33%

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ10 YES from 33% to 34%

42irrationalist bought Ṁ15 NO from 34% to 33%

42irrationalist bought Ṁ10 NO at 34%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ25 YES from 31% to 34%

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ10 NO from 32% to 31%

eulerphi bought Ṁ10 NO from 33% to 32%

sshh12 bought Ṁ10 NO at 33%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 38%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 83%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ30 NO from 35% to 33%

Quate bought Ṁ10 YES from 34% to 35%

power creep bought Ṁ10 NO at 34%

Mira filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 34%

Dan bought Ṁ30 YES from 34% to 38%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 50%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ24 YES at 34% (cancelled)

Mira sold Ṁ33 YES from 35% to 31%

Dan bought Ṁ6 YES from 34% to 35%

Jakub Kraus bought Ṁ40 NO from 37% to 34%

Dan bought Ṁ25 YES from 34% to 37%

David McSharry bought Ṁ10 YES from 33% to 34%

Adele Lopez bought Ṁ50 NO from 36% to 33%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 29%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 51%

Scott Lawrence bought Ṁ10 NO from 37% to 36%

David McSharry bought Ṁ15 YES from 35% to 37%

Daniel Balchev bought Ṁ10 NO at 35%

Mira filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 YES at 35%

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ90 NO from 34% to 28%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ17 YES at 34% (cancelled)

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ100 NO from 41% to 32%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ53 NO at 41% (cancelled)

Mira filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 YES at 47%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 39%

Mira filled limit order Ṁ150/Ṁ150 YES at 50%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ10 NO at 29%

Sophia Laird bought Ṁ10 YES from 28% to 29%

Brian T. Edwards bought Ṁ10 YES from 26% to 28%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ10 NO at 26%

Related markets

Will video generation eclipse ChatGPT? (peak search interest)64%

Are people going to get bored of chatgpt in the next year?34%

Will there be more than 4 major analogues of ChatGPT by the end of 2023?76%

Will GPT-4 exceed chatGPT interest? (2023)16%

Will there be more searches for GPT-4 than for ChatGPT on any day before July 2023?4%

ChatGPT Seasonality

Will ChatGPT be Time's 2023 Person of the Year?17%

Will any text model exceed chatGPT interest? (2023)23%

Will ChatGPT keep a free to access option by 2025?80%

Will any speech model exceed chatGPT interest? (by 2025)89%

Related markets

Will video generation eclipse ChatGPT? (peak search interest)64%

Are people going to get bored of chatgpt in the next year?34%

Will there be more than 4 major analogues of ChatGPT by the end of 2023?76%

Will GPT-4 exceed chatGPT interest? (2023)16%

Will there be more searches for GPT-4 than for ChatGPT on any day before July 2023?4%

ChatGPT Seasonality

Will ChatGPT be Time's 2023 Person of the Year?17%

Will any text model exceed chatGPT interest? (2023)23%

Will ChatGPT keep a free to access option by 2025?80%

Will any speech model exceed chatGPT interest? (by 2025)89%