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Currently arb with https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025

https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1803901130130497952

"Mira Murati: GPT-3 was toddler-level, GPT-4 was a smart high schooler and the next gen, to be released in a year and a half, will be PhD-level"

transcript is less direct:

And then in the next couple of years, we're looking at PhD-level intelligence [...]

[Interviewer] Meaning like a year from now?

Yeah, a year and a half, let's say.

Started training a ~month ago, and it took them 9 months to train GPT-4 (and 6 more months for fine-tuning, RLHF &c). Seems unlikely.

Ways in which I could be wrong:

The new foundation model they're training is actually already GPT-6; they are going to go easy on the safety training; they started training a while ago and only announced it a month ago; they will bring out an improved GPT-4 and call it GPT-5 (sub-case of this: they figure out some STaR variant that makes the model good enough to be called GPT-5, they feel strong pressure by Anthropic et al. & bring out an underwhelming model).

.

This is "before January 1st 2025" right?

Arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/JonSoark/will-chatgpt5-be-released-by-the-en

Arbitrage:

https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/how-many-pageviews-will-timelessmyt?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI

How many pageviews will Timelessmyths.com get in 2024?

Resolved CANCEL. How many pageviews will Timelessmyths.com get in 2024? It is important to mention that there is a huge revamp in progress and will be merged with ancient-literature.com later this year. I will be using this market as a guideline. Data from google analytics will be used to resol…

https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-gpt5-be-announced-by-the-end-o

Will GPT-5 be announced by the end of 2023?

4% chance. This market resolves the same way as this market: https://kalshi.com/markets/gpt5/gpt5-creation ”(…) OpenAI has announced the creation of a new large language model named GPT-5. A large language model by another name (such as GPT-4.9999), or which is referred to as a spiritual successor…

I assume it has to be a system actually called GPT-5 and released by OpenAI? And not just a follow up system after e.g. GPT-4.

@TobiasHaeberli Following

@TobiasH As of 1708866021 Gigacasting is liking Tobias' comment, so I view this as a declaration that a successor to GPT-4 that is not called GPT-5 would not be sufficient to resolve this market YES.