FTX Recovery %

Considering the “dollar value” of the assets that were stolen at the lowest point in the market, rather than the “dollar value” on the day of return is pretty gross representation by the company.

They set their own target and used this to trade directly against their customers who could not trade back.

predicts YES

@Gigacasting could you clarify if you are going to be using the dollar value at the time of bankrupcy to resolve? Or are you just going to go with whatever the official bankruptcy proceedings end up using?

predicts YES

@MartinModrak "Cents on the dollar" seems to clearly indicate USD denomination.

predicts YES

@ansgar Yes, but could also be e.g. "current dollar value"

predicts YES

@MartinModrak agreed that without context that wording is not 100% unambiguous. I would say that the dollar value at time of bankruptcy is pretty clearly the canonical metric to use here, but would indeed be helpful to have that officially confirmed (and clarified in the description) by @Gigacasting.

bought Ṁ300 of YES

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/ftx-expects-to-repay-customers-in-full-bankruptcy-lawyer-says

predicts NO

https://x.com/TheBlock__/status/1736143242410770705?s=20

For your percentage, are you considering the dollar value at the time of bankruptcy? Or coin percentage?

predicts YES

@Quin All of these calculations are generally done in dollar value, so I think the natural unit would be dollar value

predicts NO

it is naturally a good way to scam their users once more

predicts NO

24billion in taxes

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Company is not only in the hole, but owes hundreds of millions in fees to John Ray, legal teams, auditors, and court fees. Plus fines (which is pretty immoral of the courts to levy when it comes out of users pockets)

bought Ṁ40 of NO

Ill just use this as my hedge 😆

Can someone explain why this is so low?

I thought they had ~$8-9 billion in debts. They claim to have already recovered $6 billion (see comment just below me). That sounds like there is near certainty creditors will receive 66%+. The Anthropic stake has gone way up since then putting it closer to 80-100%. What am I missing?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@ScottAlexander good question - my understanding is also that the likely recovery rate will be higher than this market indicates. the market does have very low liquidity, that might just be the reason.

@ansgar I talked this over with some smart people, and the answer is I was wrong about them having $8-9 billion in debts. They actually have $16 billion. I still think this market is undervalued as "percent of debts FTX will recover", but might not be undervalued as percent that retail accounts will get back if there are legal issues around priority.

predicts YES

https://hachyderm.io/@molly0xfff/110186971849688438 reports that on a recent bankruptcy hearing, the debtors counsel claims to have collected ~$6.2 billion as of April 12th.

https://hachyderm.io/@molly0xfff/110171298698153770 report from FTX debtors summary "The report concludes by stating that the debtors have recovered and secured more than $1.4 billion in crypto assets, and have identified another $1.7 billion they're working to recover."