Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2028, there is an official, public confirmation from a U.S. or foreign government intelligence agency (CIA, FBI, Mossad, FSB, etc.) that Jeffrey Epstein was formally an intelligence asset or operative. Confirmation must come through:

• Declassified government documents explicitly stating asset status

• Official testimony from current or former intelligence officials under oath

• Court filings or legal proceedings that establish intelligence agency employment/asset relationship

Confirmation of informal relationships, financial transactions, or policy facilitation does not resolve YES. The market resolves NO if no such official confirmation occurs by the deadline.

Background

Allegations that Epstein was an intelligence asset have circulated since at least 2021, with victim Virginia Giuffre and journalist Vicky Ward making such claims. Former U.S. Attorney Alexander Acosta stated he offered Epstein a lenient plea deal because he was told Epstein "belonged to intelligence." However, Acosta later denied under oath having any knowledge of Epstein's involvement with intelligence.

Reporting documents sustained contact between Epstein and high-level Israeli figures, most prominently repeated meetings with former prime minister Ehud Barak. People who reviewed FBI-seized records said those files contained no direct indication Epstein formally served as an intelligence officer or asset. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett denied the allegations, stating "Epstein never worked for the Mossad."

In December 2024, the Department of Justice and FBI released a memo stating no more evidence related to the case would be released to the public. The U.S. Department of Justice released some, but not all, of the Epstein files by the act's deadline of December 19, 2025.

Considerations

The Mossad charge remains analytic inference rather than documentary proof—items published to date show Epstein's influence and transactional role but lack intercepted communications, payment ledgers flagged by an intelligence agency, or whistleblower testimony from inside Israeli intelligence that explicitly designates Epstein as an agent. The question has become politically charged, with media personalities and some politicians amplifying intelligence-asset theories while others dismiss such assertions as conspiratorial or politically motivated.