Will nearly all of the Epstein files be released before 00:00 ET on January 1, 2027? If the Epstein list does exist, "nearly all" must include the complete list. Otherwise, the resolution will be determined by reporting and what is said about what exists and what isn't released.
This market is inherently a subjective market, so I will not trade on it.
Acceptable redactions include:
Victims' names
Most photos (to avoid releasing CSAM)
Addresses, phone numbers, bank account numbers, etc.
Unacceptable redactions:
Perpetrators' names (unless a very small number, to be released at a point in the future)
Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will determine if "nearly all" files have been released by reviewing all available reporting at resolution time about what exists. If evidence suggests more files exist that weren't released, or that no files remain unreleased, the creator is open to hearing such evidence.
Update 2025-12-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scanned images of CDs containing files do not count as a release of the files themselves. The creator will review the actual released files to determine resolution.
Update 2025-12-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that the current level of redactions is too heavy for the market to resolve YES if this were the complete set of released files. Even if all files are technically released, excessive redactions will prevent a YES resolution.
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those are files are on the discs, discs are released: https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%204/EFTA00007998.pdf as scans
@AlexanderTheGreater nope, that's why I say it's a subjective market. I will look at all available reporting on what exists regarding resolution time (and if someone has evidence that there's more left or none left, I am happy to hear it!)
@EvanDaniel Redactions of victims' names would be acceptable, and so would redacting most photos (releasing CSAM would be bad, and I hope it doesn't happen). I would also be fine with addresses, phone numbers, bank account numbers, etc., being redacted.
Other than that, minimal redactions. Perpetrator's names being redacted would not be acceptable (unless it's a very small number).