Will Republicans and Democrats (USA) both run one cis male and one cis female as either President or VP in 2024?
59
332
995
Nov 5
50%
chance

Resolves Yes if the final running duo for both parties, republicans and democrats (others excluded) include a President and Vice president that are one male and one female in 2024

Possible combinations for YES:

Cis male president, cis female vice president

Cis female president, cis male vice president

Example: Biden/Harris, Warren/Buttigieg

Resolves no if

Either party has Male/Male or Female/Female

Either party has a non-binary candidate

Either party has a trans candidate

Example: Trump/Pence, Warren/Harris

Settled after primaries and VP announcements (when I'm sure), but I reserve the right to resolve on voting day if it seems possible that the ticket will change (e.g. one of the oldies are a death risk)

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

Unless you think Biden’s losing to Marianne, or shortly dying, this is about the republican primary market (below) where 4 of the current top 6 non-Other options are cis women.

55% seems underpriced.

bought Ṁ50 YES from 56% to 59%

If Biden runs again this is all but guaranteed for the Democrats, so the interesting question is the Republicans.

If let's say DeSantis is the candidate, he won't be running as a woke candidate, that's for sure - but he might want to temper his un-wokeness by picking a woman VP, to appeal to more women, somewhat-woke people, etc. The trouble is, if he keels over and dies due to a freak accident while President, that would put the nuclear button in the hands of a woman, and I'm not sure he wants that. I am not generally a sexist, but probably women are more inclined towards peace, and this isn't necessarily good when faced with a belligerent threat, e.g. Putin or some kind of new terrorist leader (I know, we haven't had a big terrorism problem in a while, but I don't think it's gone away completely).

predicts YES

Lol, I’m really happy to see someone expanding on their thought process for this. I went through a similar list of questions, like, it would look great if the republicans put a woman up for VP, but, like you said, would they really want the nuclear codes in the hands of a woman? 🤣😆

predicts YES

@RobinGreen Another weird/fun US presidential market if you’re interested

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@RobinGreen The current Lieutenant Governor of Florida is Jeanette Nuñez: https://www.flgov.com/lieutenant-governor-jeanette-nunez/ I don't hear a lot about her, but as far as I know, she was picked as a running mate by DeSantis. So he can't have that much of a problem with putting a woman in charge of the executive branch.

predicts NO

@NLeseul Yes, at the state level, but she doesn't have access to the nuclear button.