Context:
Will these people feel the same way about the next election?
If it seems unclear, will wait for polling data.
If on Feb 1st 2025, nobody is claiming it was illegitimate, the loser says "womp womp I lost fair and square" and there is no real contest, I won't wait for polls as it is possible none will exist.
My intention is that the first credible poll after Feb 1, 2025 will be used to resolve this market, but if it is close or reasonably contested we can wait for additional polling.
If multiple polls fall around this number (24%, 26%, 23.5%) but one credible poll is over, I will resolve YES. If multiple polls have very different results (10%, 3%, 33%) I will likely resolve NO or dump my position and decide which polls are most credible.
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