Will more than 25% of US Adults believe the 2024 Election was illegitimate in February 2025?
Basic
153
17k
2025
33%
chance

Context:

Will these people feel the same way about the next election?

If it seems unclear, will wait for polling data.

If on Feb 1st 2025, nobody is claiming it was illegitimate, the loser says "womp womp I lost fair and square" and there is no real contest, I won't wait for polls as it is possible none will exist.

My intention is that the first credible poll after Feb 1, 2025 will be used to resolve this market, but if it is close or reasonably contested we can wait for additional polling.

If multiple polls fall around this number (24%, 26%, 23.5%) but one credible poll is over, I will resolve YES. If multiple polls have very different results (10%, 3%, 33%) I will likely resolve NO or dump my position and decide which polls are most credible.

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Rationale for NO:

~50% chance Trump wins per other markets. In the event that he loses, a majority of his supporters, perhaps somewhere in the range of 30-40% of voters, will claim the election was rigged (as they did for his previous loss). In the event that he wins, though, Democratic voters will dispute the legitimacy of the election at a much lower rate, below 10% (as they did when he originally won, focusing mainly on blaming either Clinton or Sanders for his victory). The average of these is below 25%. A bet for YES implies you think there is a much lower chance Trump will win than other markets predict and would be better placed in those markets.

We had faithless electors. If the question resolves YES, how about we coin in advance "faithless" voter in the ironic sense for those who vote again for 2024, defined via their decision tree:

Said "2020 election was illegitimate" => "I will vote in 2024 For Trump" => Asked whether 2024 election was legitimate => < Did Trump Win in 2024>? => if [YES] Respond "Yes"; if [NO] Respond "No"

@parhizj don't worry, these people are all proud believers in the Constitution.. Since according to them Trump was elected twice, in 2016 and 2020, they won't vote for him since he's term-limited.

(I can't believe I kept a straight face while typing that)

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