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MANIFOLD
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in June?
3
Ṁ1kṀ3k
Jun 16
19%
Increase
78%
No change
3%
Decrease

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the official interest rate decision announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board following its meeting scheduled for June 15–16, 2026.

  • Increase: Resolves YES if the RBA announces an increase to the official cash rate target.

  • No change: Resolves YES if the RBA announces that the official cash rate target will be maintained at its current level.

  • Decrease: Resolves YES if the RBA announces a decrease to the official cash rate target.

The official decision is typically released via a media release on the RBA website at 2:30 pm AEST on the final day of the meeting. You can verify the outcome at the official RBA website: https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meeting/

Background

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds eight scheduled Monetary Policy Board meetings per year to determine the official cash rate. The current cash rate is 4.35%, following a 25-basis point increase decided at the May 2026 meeting. Market participants monitor these decisions closely, as they influence borrowing costs and reflect the RBA's assessment of inflation, employment, and economic prosperity in Australia.

Market context
Interest Rates
Federal reserve
Inflation
Central Banks
Australian Politics
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bought Ṁ5 YES

Inflation at 4.6% to me suggests the RBA would normally keep raising rates until they're back between 2 and 3. Even the trimmed mean was over 3%.

Bullock's RBA seems like they're less concerned with maintaining credibility though. Very willing to just let everything run hot for longer.

@Tripping Yeah, they seem a little lost with how to balance a strong dollar, housing pressure from overleveraged buyers, and the need to continue to increase rates further.

I would hope that they continue to make data focused decisions and let the government handle any fallout (i.e. people unable to meet mortgage payments) rather than allow it to run too long and snowball

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