Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) official cash rate as of June 30, 2026. The cash rate is the interest rate on overnight loans in the money market, serving as the benchmark for monetary policy in Australia. The official rate will be determined by the RBA's announcement closest to June 30, 2026, and can be verified through the RBA's official publications or reputable financial news sources.

Background

As of July 2025, the RBA's cash rate stands at 3.85%. Recent forecasts suggest a potential reduction to 3.60% in August 2025, with further cuts anticipated in November 2025, February 2026, and May 2026, potentially bringing the rate down to 2.85% by mid-2026. These projections are based on expectations of easing inflation and moderated economic growth. (forexlive.com)

Considerations

While current forecasts indicate a downward trend in the cash rate, actual decisions will depend on economic data, inflation trends, and global economic conditions leading up to June 2026. Traders should monitor RBA statements and economic indicators for updates that may influence the cash rate trajectory.