Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump leaves office before the end of his current term (January 20, 2029) for any reason directly related to the Epstein files or documents. This includes resignation, impeachment and conviction, or removal via the 25th Amendment if explicitly triggered by Epstein-related revelations or political pressure stemming from the files.

The market resolves NO if Trump completes his term or leaves office for unrelated reasons (health, other scandals, etc.). If Trump leaves office and the primary cause is ambiguous or disputed, resolution will be determined by the creator's assessment of whether Epstein files were a material factor in the departure.

Background

Trump promised during the 2024 election to release the Justice Department's "Epstein files," but his administration has resisted doing so. The House Oversight Committee has released a new tranche of documents, including several emails from the estate of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein that refer to President Trump. A newly sworn-in Democratic member of Congress provided the 218th – and final – signature needed on the discharge petition to force a House vote compelling the files' release. House Speaker Johnson told reporters that he will hold a vote next week to decide if all Epstein files should be released.

Considerations

For Trump to be removed from office pursuant to Article II, section four of the constitution, he would need to be impeached and found guilty of "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors". The 25th Amendment allows removal of a US president deemed unfit for office, but its high threshold and political barriers make Trump's ouster virtually impossible. Without the vice president's participation, the process cannot even begin—and there's no indication Vice President JD Vance would consider such action against the president who selected him. Voluntary resignation remains the most plausible mechanism for Trump to leave office over this issue.