I define released as- Open and accessible by the public. (includes any files even ones with redactions), also any unofficial leak or release does not count, I will only use the official number from the DOJ.

If 2.5 million pages are released before the end of 2026 the market is resolved.

Resolution Criteria

The Department of Justice published over 3 million additional pages responsive to the Epstein Files Transparency Act in February 2026, and the Department stated that the January 30 release would be the final one, and that it had met its legal obligations. The market resolves based on the total number of pages released and publicly accessible (including redacted pages) by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official DOJ statements and the Epstein Library at https://www.justice.gov/epstein. If additional releases occur after the January 2026 batch, they will be counted toward the total.

Background

In November 2025, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Epstein Files Transparency Act, and the U.S. Senate unanimously approved it, with President Donald Trump signing the bill into law the next day. The U.S. Department of Justice released files in stages: an initial batch on the act's December 19 deadline, which drew bipartisan criticism for extensive redactions and failure to meet the law's requirements, followed by over 3 million pages on January 30, 2026. In January 2026, an additional 3 million pages were released, including 2,000 videos and 180,000 images. Beginning in September 2025, the House Oversight Committee separately released tens of thousands of pages it obtained from the Justice Department and the Epstein estate.

Considerations

While the Department of Justice acknowledged that a total of 6 million pages might qualify as files required to be released, it stated that the January 30 release would be the final one. However, a sixth release was published on March 5, 2026, indicating additional pages may still be released. The market should account for the possibility of further releases beyond what the DOJ has claimed to be final.

Parts of this description was generated by AI.