Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on the total duration of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliatory strikes, measured in consecutive days. The market ends when either side ceases all offensive operations for 24+ consecutive hours.

Background

The U.S.-Israeli operation began with strikes killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and several other senior government officials. Iran fired missiles at targets in Israel and Gulf Arab states after vowing massive retaliation for Khamenei's killing. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps said missiles and drones were used in a sixth "wave" of retaliatory attacks, vowing to continue its warfare in response. The Trump administration was planning a "multiday operation".

Considerations

Analysts have warned that the fighting could potentially draw the United States into a protracted conflict with no clear exit, as Iran's leadership oversees extensive military abilities and a network of regional proxy forces. The outcome depends heavily on whether Iran's new leadership structure chooses to escalate, de-escalate, or negotiate following the death of Khamenei and other senior officials.