
Will the Damage by Space Objects "treaty" get upgraded or replaced at least partly by some nations before 2032?
1
200Ṁ52032
49%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects enlarged on article 7 of the Outer Space Treaty in 1972. Will it too be elaborated on, before 2032? Will resolve on a treaty signed, not necessarily ratified, by at least three of the permanent members of the UN security council or alternatively at least 7 nations that are full member states of the United Nations and at least two permanent members of the UN security Council.
Committment: won't trade on this before april first, but after then, may dip my toe, as the criteria are quite precise and objective and independent of myself.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will anyone be killed by falling space debris before the end of 2032?
9% chance
Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?
10% chance
Will an international space-junk clean up initiative begin before 2026?
36% chance
Will a space trash laser be used to clean orbital debris before 2030?
22% chance
Collision between two occupied ships in space leading to injuries any time through 2035
9% chance
Will there be space wars by 2050
34% chance
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated in space by 2050?
62% chance
Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?
16% chance
[Metaculus] Will a non-test Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
32% chance
Will anyone die in space before 2030?
30% chance