Will a Nankai Trough megaquake (M8.0+) occur within the next 30 days?

8

Ṁ100Ṁ1k

resolved Sep 7

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The Japanese government just issued its first-ever "Megaquake Advisory."

The advisory will remain active for one week, urging residents to stay vigilant. However, officials have clarified that this does not imply a specific timeline for an imminent earthquake. The warning is a precaution, encouraging individuals to prepare and remain aware of evacuation routes and supplies.

Resolution Source: Official reports from the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
Payout Criteria: The market resolves as "Yes" if an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or higher occurs in the Nankai Trough within the specified timeframe. Otherwise, it resolves as "No."

Market context

Natural Disasters

Extreme Weather

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ54
2		Ṁ14
3		Ṁ5
4		Ṁ5
5		Ṁ4

Sort by:

The market uses the Moment Magnitude Scale.

Thanks for pointing that out, I thought the JMA reported both. The Japanese scale stops at 7, btw.

View original context

Japan and USGS use different scales for measuring magnitude. I think you need to pick one or the other.

The market uses the Moment Magnitude Scale.

Thanks for pointing that out, I thought the JMA reported both. The Japanese scale stops at 7, btw.

reposted

Mini megaquake market.

People are also trading

Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026?

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

When will the next earthquake that is greater than magnitude 9.0 and japan seismic intensity scale reach 7 hit japan?

Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?

Will a large earthquake rock a major city that isn't in a tectonically active area by end 2029?

Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?

Related questions

Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026?

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

When will the next earthquake that is greater than magnitude 9.0 and japan seismic intensity scale reach 7 hit japan?

Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?

Will a large earthquake rock a major city that isn't in a tectonically active area by end 2029?

Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?