Will a European country will re-establish a monarchy in the 21st century?
Will a European country will re-establish a monarchy in the 21st century?
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Resolves to YES if any European country goes from being a republic to a monarchy before the year 2100, claiming to restore its monrachy (not introducing a new monarchy). The historic monarchy does not need to exactly correspond to the country restoring it (e.g. the Kingdom of Poland had different borders to modern Poland, but it would still count). Russia, Turkey and Cyprus count as part of Europe; Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan do not.
Inspired by this Tweet: https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1653798589573873664?s=20
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Does it count as yes if it is a current monarchy? Like, they abolish the monarchy and later restore it?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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