Will a European country will re-establish a monarchy in the 21st century?
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Resolves to YES if any European country goes from being a republic to a monarchy before the year 2100, claiming to restore its monrachy (not introducing a new monarchy). The historic monarchy does not need to exactly correspond to the country restoring it (e.g. the Kingdom of Poland had different borders to modern Poland, but it would still count). Russia, Turkey and Cyprus count as part of Europe; Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan do not.
Inspired by this Tweet: https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1653798589573873664?s=20
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Does it count as yes if it is a current monarchy? Like, they abolish the monarchy and later restore it?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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