Will Vaxart’s oral COVID vaccine candidate show at least 75% efficacy in a human challenge trial?
10
80
2025
55%
chance

Background: Vaxart is planning to run a human challenge trial using the Omicron strain of COVID to test its oral vaccine candidate. See: https://investors.vaxart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vaxart-announces-agreement-hvivo-develop-worlds-first-human

Resolves YES if the reported efficacy against infection is 75% or more, NO if under 75% efficacy, and N/A if the vaccine trial winds up not happening, or if efficacy against infection isn’t used as a clinical endpoint (although that seems unlikely).

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