By the end of 2029 will there be a UV light company worth $1 billion?
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18
240
2029
25%
chance

Resolves YES if by the end of 2029 there's a $1b company focused on manufacturing UV lights; doesn't have to be the only thing it makes but the company's success has to be founded on UV lights. (UV lights are gaining traction for use in air disinfection.)

See: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1575472179268898816

Idea for the market is based on a colleague's throwaway comment--let me know if phrasing is underspecified.

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What is the $1b based on? Market cap? Valuation? Revenue? Profits?

bought Ṁ27 of NO

As someone who has purchased these for my day job, I've not seen much low hanging fruit for innovation in the field. Basically every product is the same design, with the nicer ones coming with certain guarantees or special features most customers won't need or notice. This is coming from the commercial sector, so residential units may find some more success, but the business model lacks any sort of recurring revenue stream so I doubt that side as well. I think it is more likely that higher-end units, both in commercial and residential markets, simply have some cheap UV lights included from the lowest bidder and it's rarely considered past that point.