Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.
The prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release.
Edit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024
Edit: human troops are not a must to meet requirements to this question's criteria - 30/01/2025
Edit: length of conflict is also not a must to meet requirements - 30/01/2025
Edit: fixed a weird comment by the AI summary, sorry for the confusion it may have caused. - 05/04/2025
Edit: small clarification that if GTA is delayied, this question would follow - 05/04/2025
Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict. In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries.
Diplomatic Misunderstandings Leading to Small-Scale Conflicts: A breakdown in diplomacy could spark numerous localized conflicts around the world. If these conflicts become widespread enough, they could collectively be considered a "world at war," even if individually they are short-lived (likely lasting no more than a few weeks).
Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fully Mechanized Armies Clarification:
The mere development of fully mechanized military forces (such as AI-driven drones and autonomous weapons systems) is sufficient for this criterion, even if these forces are not actually deployed.
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OP: This is not the case as specified in another post, the AI wrongly assumed my intentions. Here the relevant comment
```Having the mechanized/autonomous armies clause simply means that armies made of humans and armies made entirely by autonomous/mechanized units are considered alike to the resolution of this question. This avoids the "no human, no war" exploit to this question.
```
So the decisive factor remains the use of violence aimed at claiming land, whether by humans or machines. In that sense, it's a functional definition of war that applies equally to both.
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This distinguishes the resolution criteria from scenarios (like a cold war) where deployment might be a factor.
1,000People are also trading
A general comment about questions of this nature: I would have thought this question would be biased towards low probabilities? I mean I hope that the community prediction reflects the true probability! But a world in which WW3 happens soon, is a world in which you would have bigger problems than losing your imaginary internet points..
@Liedholm
While the stakes in a potential global conflict would certainly shift priorities drastically, in the meantime, I find it pragmatic to lean on the market’s collective assessment.
@NiplavYushtun Yeah, I'd like to bet on it not happening, but not sure if I will. I think it would be appropriate to push that number down from the current 8% probability to at least below 3% (I think GTA 6 might be out later this year). But I'm a bit worried about the unclarities in terms of resolution criteria discussed below (surely simply having mechanized/autonomous armies wouldn't count as being in a world war, right?). Of note is also that the host has 132 730 Mana on "YES" so far...
@Liedholm 3% is a good extimate, I'm mostly doing the double bet of a delayied GTA 6 and/or an escalation.
Having the mechanized/autonomous armies clause simply means that armies made of humans and armies made entirely by autonomous/mechanized units are considered alike to the resolution of this question. This avoids the "no human, no war" exploit to this question.
As of today, 30/01/25, I’ve added two key edits to the resolution criteria for this question. These edits outline the only two scenarios I think in which this prediction could resolve as "yes":
The Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict. In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries.
Diplomatic Misunderstandings Leading to Small-Scale Conflicts: A breakdown in diplomacy could spark numerous localized conflicts around the world. If these conflicts become widespread enough, they could collectively be considered a "world at war," even if individually they are short-lived (likely lasting no more than a few weeks).
These edits reflect the evolving nature of modern warfare and the potential pathways to a global conflict, even if it doesn’t resemble traditional world wars.
@EnricoCaminiti Are you willing to commit that you will not resolve positive if these armies are only developed and not deployed?
@NiplavYushtun That would be the resolving of a different question, maybe about a possible cold war, which is not this one. Still the development of these armies must be acounted for.
There are strong indications that another party will join the conflict within march
When you say "the conflict," which conflict are you referring to? For example, the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
@EnricoCaminiti For which war have you observed "strong indicators of a third party joining" and a new war front opening? Examples: a new front related to the Yemenite civil war; a new party joining the fighting in Sudan, etc.
@EnricoCaminiti I’ve asked several times which specific conflict you’re referring to, but you’ve only responded with vague terms like ‘global conflict.’ If there’s nothing concrete behind your claim, it’s starting to seem more like speculation for the sake of it rather than actual insight. Are you basing this on any credible developments, or is it just a guess?
I'm European.
@GazDownright > Are you basing this on any credible developments
Do Trump recent claims on Greenland and Mexico count as credible developments?
@EnricoCaminiti Thanks for pointing to specific events—it's more helpful than general terms like 'global conflict.' That said, Trump’s claims aren’t always the most credible; they often seem more like negotiation tactics. I also don’t see how the U.S. attacking Mexico or Greenland (if that's what you mean?) would add to an existing conflict. I’m still unclear on your original point—when you mentioned 'strong indications' of another party joining the conflict, which conflict did you mean, and which third party are you referring to?
@GazDownright I'm not referring to a specific third party or conflict, I wish I could predict the future down to the last digit, but I can only try to read between the lines. If you really need a better answer I can provide something with a bit of statistical gymnastic.
The current probability of world war at the moment is clearly non zero, as many conflicting interests are currently on the table. The probability that, for example, Taiwan gets attacked by China, or that Putin actually uses an atomic nuclear bomb are also very low, but are kept artificially low through America's direct/indirect intervention. If America decides, for whatever reason, not to intervene, or worse, to set an example, those probabilities will inevitably go up.
Now that I've set aside the obvious, if I were to make a wild guess, the asian front is getting pretty warm, in particular Korea isn't looking too good.
P.s. I'm sorry I can't provide better answers.
Edit: also please understand that I'm not doing this bet for money, but to have a pseudo reliable extimation of a possible world conflict. Thus you are free to milk out this question for money (as long as you get me a copy of gta6 mydude).
@GazDownright Also, when I told "clear indications" I am refering both to the fact that NO serious step is being taken towards a peaceful resolution of the current Ukraine conflict, and the fact that an increasing number of govs are using "external enemies" as a general excuse for legitimacy and to hold onto power.
Putin declares that the conflict has "acquired elements of global nature"
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