At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government paused student loan payments. These payments will be restarting at the start of September 2023, with the first payments due in October. Commentators have suggested that due to the changes since the start of the pandemic, Americans with student loans will be worse off than they were before. However, the Biden administration is changing the student loan program in an attempt to ease the transition.

The rate of student loan delinquency was roughly constant from 2013 until 2020, at around 11%, before dropping to near zero during the student loan payment pause. Will the rate of student loan delinquency be higher at the end of 2024?

To operationalize, this is looking at the "Student Loan" line on the graph "Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type" published in the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit by the New York Federal Reserve Bank. I'll compare the 2024Q4 to the 2019Q4 data. To resolve YES, the datapoint for the 2024Q4 must be at least 1% higher than the datapoint for 2019Q4, otherwise resolves NO. If I have access to a numeric source, I will compare the data directly. Otherwise I will analyze the graph to determine the values.