I will use "Delinquency Rate on Commercial Real Estate Loans (Excluding Farmland), Booked in Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks (DRCRELEXFACBS)" from the St Louis Fed:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS

If this index is above 2% for any quarter before Q1 2026, I will resolve YES, and NO otherwise.

The intention of this market is to assess fears that remote work could lead to a decline in office space rents and cause a financial crisis for small banks that are overexposed on these loans.