At any point in 2024, will my percent loaned be below 1%?

Manifold•Manifold Features•Manifold Users•Manifold Investors•Loans•@MattyBs Personal Goals•Loan Land•Market Secured Loans

Ṁ194

Ṁ160

2025

86%

chance

ALL

I figured out a strategy for this! Got the value under 3k. The odds for this should go up [image]

Mar 28

2.7% => 2.5% ($2874 / $114757) [image]We’ve got two Net Worth numbers now, but I’m going to use the bottom one because I trust that more (it’s been around longer idk).

Mar 29

@mattyb 2 updates: I’m now at 2.1% [image]We now have singular net worth’s! Thanks Ian

Apr 2

@mattyb 1.81% ($2247 / $123977) [image]

Apr 5

1.81% => 1.49% ($1996/$133613)

Apr 9

1.81% => 1.49% ($1996/$133613) [image]

Apr 9

I don’t take loans, unless I really need to (or I accidentally push the button). My current loan percent is 2.7% ($3095 / $113881), seen in the below screenshot. Will my loan percent be below 1% at any point in 2024?

I won’t be betting here, but I really do want to get that number down as close to 0 as I can manage. Will I be able to push it below 1% of net worth this year?

Get Ṁ200 play money

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1.81% => 1.49% ($1996/$133613)

2.7% => 2.5% ($2874 / $114757)

We’ve got two Net Worth numbers now, but I’m going to use the bottom one because I trust that more (it’s been around longer idk).

@mattyb 2 updates:

I’m now at 2.1%

We now have singular net worth’s! Thanks Ian

@mattyb 1.81% ($2247 / $123977)

I figured out a strategy for this! Got the value under 3k. The odds for this should go up

bought Ṁ30 YES

@mattyb (This might be your strategy, but-) is it possible to query which of your trades have loans on them?

@Ziddletwix it’s not, and honestly, i don’t know. my strategy is sorta fraught if i accidentally take another loans, so I’m curious if there are alt strategies

@Ziddletwix @mattyb sooo there is a way to look at which trades have outstanding loans.

trades tab -> (I recommend sorting by oldest bets) -> open details -> you can see the outstanding loans. could easily sell those shares to shed the loan and rebuy if you wanted

@Stralor this is what i’m doing. oldest trades => newest, which only works bc I don’t push the button. if i accidentally hit it again, it’s gonna screw up that strat.

@mattyb true. oldest allows you to clear the bets with the highest ratio of loan. but sorting by largest value might help clear the biggest total loans if you hit the button again.

@Stralor my biggest positions are all recent, or I’m the only holding the market in place, and can’t sell without losing :(

@mattyb If they're recent, do you have loans on them? do you know when the last misclick was?

@Ziddletwix i think in 2023. all my old ones were autoloaned to basically 100%, so they’re super impactful to sell and sometimes i just immediately rebuy. i’m hoping that’s enough to get me to <1%.

The stupid Aquaman one is leveraged to hell and stuck until July

@mattyb Got it. yeah I already begged for that aquaman one to end (don't believe in dragging out markets when they're finished), but not sure it will. next week (after end-of-month stuff) i'm sure i could put down 1k on those options & see if that's enough to let you exit? (for my whole manifold history i've been so mana constrained but at this point the loans should be fine unless they've disabled for me on that one for some reason)