Resolves YES for all candidates who have yet to withdraw from the 2024 Republican primary by January 15, 2024, the date of the first election of the cycle, the 2024 Iowa caucuses.
The candidates don't need to still have a meaningful shot of winning, they just need to have not yet suspended their campaign/withdrawn from the primary.
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His predictions for dropping out in the next six weeks (early-mid December):
Extremely unlikely to drop out in next 6 weeks (2-5% chance): Nikki Haley
Very unlikely to drop out in next 6 weeks (5-10% chance): Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie
Unlikely to drop out in next 6 weeks (10-15% chance): Ron DeSantis
Almost as likely as not to drop out in next 6 weeks (30-50% chance): Tim Scott
More likely than not to drop out in next 6 weeks (>50% chance): Pence
Burgum and Hutchinson weren’t even mentioned, which isn’t a great sign for them staying in much longer.