Who will still be in the Republican primary on January 15, 2024?
68
613
3K
resolved Jan 15
Resolved
YES
Donald Trump
Resolved
YES
Ron DeSantis
Resolved
YES
Nikki Haley
Resolved
YES
Vivek Ramaswamy
Resolved
YES
Asa Hutchinson
Resolved
NO
Chris Christie
Resolved
NO
Mike Pence
Resolved
NO
Tim Scott
Resolved
NO
Doug Burgum

Resolves YES for all candidates who have yet to withdraw from the 2024 Republican primary by January 15, 2024, the date of the first election of the cycle, the 2024 Iowa caucuses.

The candidates don't need to still have a meaningful shot of winning, they just need to have not yet suspended their campaign/withdrawn from the primary.

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bought Ṁ1,000 of Nikki Haley YES

If they drop out immediately after results announced, they are still in the race on Jan 15th (if not at the end of Jan 15th)? So remaining 5 can resolve yes?

@ChristopherRandles Correct, thanks!

bought Ṁ100 of Asa Hutchinson YES
Tim Scott

This should be resolved NO.

His predictions for dropping out in the next six weeks (early-mid December):

  • Extremely unlikely to drop out in next 6 weeks (2-5% chance): Nikki Haley

  • Very unlikely to drop out in next 6 weeks (5-10% chance): Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie

  • Unlikely to drop out in next 6 weeks (10-15% chance): Ron DeSantis

  • Almost as likely as not to drop out in next 6 weeks (30-50% chance): Tim Scott

  • More likely than not to drop out in next 6 weeks (>50% chance): Pence

Burgum and Hutchinson weren’t even mentioned, which isn’t a great sign for them staying in much longer.