What will be the most dramatic event on Manifold of April 2024?
25
290
Ṁ1.3k
resolved May 5
100%95%
The Big Pivot
0.2%
Nothing particularly dramatic
0.1%
Ammon vs Joshua trade war
0.7%
Austin leaving Manifold
0.2%
continued agency stuff
0.4%
firstuserhere ban
0.2%
BTE ban
0.3%
JasonTheWeen trader influx
0.2%
CosmicCookie Discord ban
1.8%
Announcement of mana supply changes (no loans, no unique trader bonuses, trading fees)
1.0%Other

April 2024

What will be the most dramatic event on Manifold of April 2024?

Resolves to the results of a poll held starting after the month ends. A tie will resolve equally to all the tied answers.

Anyone can add more answers. Any answers that are clearly trolling will not be polled. Overlapping answers are allowed if they are significantly different.

Last month's market: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-will-be-the-most-dramatic-even-465e4ac11043

Last month's poll: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-was-the-most-dramatic-event-on-0d2c4b927963

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I think this is unambiguous, but I posted a poll anyway: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-was-the-most-dramatic-event-on-ed031096ac1f

we can resolve this

Announcement of mana supply changes (no loans, no unique trader bonuses, trading fees)

when does the pivot count?

  • it's implemented

  • it's officially announced

  • or now, when we're all panicky

@Stralor It’s all about how people vote in the poll

sold Ṁ2 Austin leaving Manifold YES

@Gabrielle does https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10 count as part of The Big Pivot for purposes of this market?

@gregrosent If people voting in the poll think it counts, then it counts

firstuserhere ban

@strutheo do you know something? This is a great guess for the staff drama, fits everything i remember hearing

bought Ṁ10 Other YES

oh he is actually banned

ok i should have looked at updates before thinking that was a guess. rip