52% chance. Conditional on at least 10 million 18-24 year old biological humans living in liberal democracies and having some capacity to choose, will <10% of them consume farmed sentient beings on a weekly basis before 2100. Conditionality This is intended to eliminate scenarios in which humans are broadly unable to choose freely and whose consumption is driven out of necessity (e.g. for reasons such as catastrophe, social collapse, value lock in, autocratic rule/command economies). This will be evaluated using some highly regarded index e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index If at any point these conditions are not met the market will resolve N/A, to avoid cases of societal collapse and subsequent recovery. Choice Individuals and societies must have some capacity (similar to the freedom they have in 2023) to determine their consumption behaviours else this will resolve N/A. If individuals are unable to determine their consumption because society has restricted access to meat (e.g. banning consumption/animal farming) that would still represent a choice, provided they live in a liberal democracy and the market may still resolve Yes/No. 18-24 Age Group This is intended to capture cohort replacement effects, it's possible if life expectancies are greatly increased in the near future a large fraction of the population in 2100 will be alive today and individual's behaviours may change more slowly than society. The market intends to capture prevailing sentiment of the people of the transient generation, not broader society. This would be analogous to surveying sentiment towards homosexuality among Gen Z in 2023, which might be materially different to broader society. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/31/societies-change-their-minds-faster-than-people-do [link preview]Sentient beings This is intended to represent commonly consumed farmed animals in 2023 (Cows, Pigs, Chickens) that are broadly believed to have subjective experience and capacity to suffer, allowing for drifts in genetics / consumer preferences. This excludes lab grown meat as well as animals reared in an entirely unconscious state. It also excludes insects, bivalves and similar which might be contentious and form a relatively small part of 2023 diets. Resolution This market will resolve to N/A, if necessary conditions are not met at any point before 2100. This market will resolve Yes if <10% choose to consume meat at any point before 2100. This market will resolve No if by 2100 10% or more choose to consume meat and necessary conditions prevail throughout. Disclaimer I will not bet on this market and may modify conditionality in the spirit of the question (e.g. to address extinction, transhumanism and similar concerns) to remove confounding effects.