Will a European country ban selling meat by 2100?

Where European = any country in EU as of 2023.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

My related market has some arbitrage potential here (although would likely involve much broader bans)


Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?
52% chance. Conditional on at least 10 million 18-24 year old biological humans living in liberal democracies and having some capacity to choose, will <10% of them consume farmed sentient beings on a weekly basis before 2100. Conditionality This is intended to eliminate scenarios in which humans are broadly unable to choose freely and whose consumption is driven out of necessity (e.g. for reasons such as catastrophe, social collapse, value lock in, autocratic rule/command economies). This will be evaluated using some highly regarded index e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index If at any point these conditions are not met the market will resolve N/A, to avoid cases of societal collapse and subsequent recovery. Choice Individuals and societies must have some capacity (similar to the freedom they have in 2023) to determine their consumption behaviours else this will resolve N/A. If individuals are unable to determine their consumption because society has restricted access to meat (e.g. banning consumption/animal farming) that would still represent a choice, provided they live in a liberal democracy and the market may still resolve Yes/No. 18-24 Age Group This is intended to capture cohort replacement effects, it's possible if life expectancies are greatly increased in the near future a large fraction of the population in 2100 will be alive today and individual's behaviours may change more slowly than society. The market intends to capture prevailing sentiment of the people of the transient generation, not broader society. This would be analogous to surveying sentiment towards homosexuality among Gen Z in 2023, which might be materially different to broader society. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/31/societies-change-their-minds-faster-than-people-do [link preview]Sentient beings This is intended to represent commonly consumed farmed animals in 2023 (Cows, Pigs, Chickens) that are broadly believed to have subjective experience and capacity to suffer, allowing for drifts in genetics / consumer preferences. This excludes lab grown meat as well as animals reared in an entirely unconscious state. It also excludes insects, bivalves and similar which might be contentious and form a relatively small part of 2023 diets. Resolution This market will resolve to N/A, if necessary conditions are not met at any point before 2100. This market will resolve Yes if <10% choose to consume meat at any point before 2100. This market will resolve No if by 2100 10% or more choose to consume meat and necessary conditions prevail throughout. Disclaimer I will not bet on this market and may modify conditionality in the spirit of the question (e.g. to address extinction, transhumanism and similar concerns) to remove confounding effects.

My wife sometimes saying - "Quantum Gambler, you are an animal in the bed, give me the meat stick!" If I am freelancing in Hungary in 2100, is this not considered called a ban?

Does this include or exclude cell cultured/lab grown meat?

predicts NO

@HomesickAlien exclude. This question is only about a ban on meat that comes from killed animals. I'm also thinking of a blanket ban, as opposed to e.g. a ban on selling meat from endangered animals.

@GabiPurcaru Alright, so no exceptions?

@GabiPurcaru animals including fish?

predicts NO

@HomesickAlien the intent here is about a wide ranging ban on meat that comes from animal suffering.

So let's say that any animal meat is included (i.e. fish also), but the ban has to be wide scale enough to cover e.g. >70% of all such meat on sale at that current time.

@GabiPurcaru Does this include insects?

@cloudprism for what it's worth my similar market (which I believe has similar intentions) excludes insects, bivalves, lab cultured meat and meat from entirely unconscious animals, and focusses on only farmed sentient beings similar to the commonly eaten animals of today.

More related questions