Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Elon Musk ranks #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as of the market's close date. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is updated daily at the close of trading in New York. Alternatively, the market may reference Forbes' real-time billionaire rankings if Bloomberg data is unavailable. The market resolves NO if any other individual ranks wealthier than Musk on either index.

Background

Elon Musk is currently the wealthiest person in the world, with an estimated net worth of $648 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index and $749 billion according to Forbes, as of December 2025. His net worth recently shot up to $638 billion, making him the first person estimated to be worth more than $600 billion. Musk holds a 42% stake in SpaceX, valued at $317 billion. In November 2025, a Tesla pay package worth potentially $1 trillion for Musk was approved, which he is to receive over 10 years if he meets specific goals.

Considerations

Larry Ellison briefly took the world's #1 spot in September 2025 after a surge in Oracle's share price, only to lose some of that gain later as stocks dipped again. Market sentiment and stock performance continue to cause daily wealth swings even at billionaire levels. Musk's wealth is heavily concentrated in Tesla and SpaceX holdings, making his ranking sensitive to valuations of these private and public companies.