Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?
Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?
82
10kṀ33k
2026
83%
chance

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

I will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question resolves as Yes if, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Elon Musk is ranked #1 in net worth when the resolution source is accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2025. If Musk is not ranked #1, then this question resolves as No.

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1mo

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opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 72% order1mo

jim order up

filled a Ṁ4,000 YES at 82% order1mo

@jim Thanks, I took most of it

1mo

@TimothyJohnson5c16 u realise this is just the start

1mo

@jim Maybe, but even if TSLA drops 50%, Elon will still be ahead.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 frankly I think this is looking bad for me. My thesis was that Elon's wealth would stagnate and others' would rise sharply. But if xAI keeps crushing then that won't happen

bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 77% to 79% 1mo
1mo

@jim I need to think about it more carefully TBH, rather than going off of vibes. But I did some forecasting last night about AI revenues at EOY and arrived at very big numbers.

1mo

@jim Hmmm, I still think it will take longer before AI starts generating lots of revenue. Stock valuations could go crazy anyway based on expectations, but I think they're already kind of crazy now 🤔

1mo

@TimothyJohnson5c16 they're crazy now, how crazy will they be EOY when AI companies are raking in 100+ billion in revenue from coding agents

1mo

@jim Want to bet on that? I'm pretty sure that the total revenue in 2025 for all AI startups combined will be under $100 billion.

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