From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
I will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question resolves as Yes if, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Elon Musk is ranked #1 in net worth when the resolution source is accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2025. If Musk is not ranked #1, then this question resolves as No.
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https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-share-sale-400-billion-valuation/
Elon owns 42% of SpaceX, which already adds $160 billion.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 from what I understand the Forbes list (and maybe Bloomberg too?) already accounted for a valuation of xAI and SpaceX, but I may be wrong. In any case I doubt we should add $160bn to his wealth. The valuation was not zero before yesterday.
@MachiNi this matches my understanding, with the caveat that private assets are only valued sporadically. So it might be the case that a jump (positive or negative) is to be expected if e.g. SpaceX's valuation has changed a lot in the last 6-12 months.
@MachiNi Oh, yeah, I didn't mean to imply all of this is new. The previous valuation I saw several months ago was $350 billion.
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@jim His stake in SpaceX is larger: https://sherwood.news/tech/elon-musks-spacex-stake-is-now-worth-more-than-his-tesla-shares-on-paper/
@TimothyJohnson5c16 frankly I think this is looking bad for me. My thesis was that Elon's wealth would stagnate and others' would rise sharply. But if xAI keeps crushing then that won't happen
@jim I need to think about it more carefully TBH, rather than going off of vibes. But I did some forecasting last night about AI revenues at EOY and arrived at very big numbers.
@jim Hmmm, I still think it will take longer before AI starts generating lots of revenue. Stock valuations could go crazy anyway based on expectations, but I think they're already kind of crazy now 🤔
@TimothyJohnson5c16 they're crazy now, how crazy will they be EOY when AI companies are raking in 100+ billion in revenue from coding agents
@jim Want to bet on that? I'm pretty sure that the total revenue in 2025 for all AI startups combined will be under $100 billion.