Elon Musk will be world's wealthiest person on January 1, 2026
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Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person according to the Forbes Billionaires List on January 1, 2026?
To resolve yes, Elon must be listed as the worlds wealthiest person on the Forbes real-time billionaires list at 12pm pst on January 1, 2026.
https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/
Only this date will be checked. If he drops in the interim and returns to #1 this will still resolve to yes.
If the Forbes list no longer exists, this Bloomberg list will be used. https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/
If neither exist it will resolve 50/50 as we will likely have other bigger issues 😂
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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