
Will OpenAI suggest GPT-4 is AGI?
110
2kṀ36kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ265 | |
2 | Ṁ50 | |
3 | Ṁ30 | |
4 | Ṁ30 | |
5 | Ṁ29 |
People are also trading
Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?
19% chance
Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?
7% chance
Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025
64% chance
Will OpenAI refer to o3 as AGI?
8% chance
Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
91% chance
To what extent is GPT-4 AGI?
POLL
Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]
9% chance
Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?
83% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
41% chance
Sort by:
Saltman talks about "Is GPT 4 AGI" at 59:!0 (https://youtu.be/L_Guz73e6fw?t=3550) and then asks Lex " do you think GPT4 is AGI" -> lex replies NO, but hints at potential, and then Sam replies
"I think GPT-4 is although quite impressive, it is definitely NOT AGI, but what is remarkable is that we're even having this debate"
@firstuserhere One counterargument might be the "Sparks of AGI" paper, but those were Microsoft employees not OpenAI.
On Twitter, Greg Brockman says "No" in response to "Do you think GPT 4 is going to be AGI": https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1602074382616117250
People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?
19% chance
Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?
7% chance
Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025
64% chance
Will OpenAI refer to o3 as AGI?
8% chance
Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
91% chance
To what extent is GPT-4 AGI?
POLL
Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]
9% chance
Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?
83% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
41% chance