Will OpenAI suggest GPT-4 is AGI?

Franklin Baldo

closes Jan 1, 2025

AI GPT-4 speculation

11%

chance

Context

https://twitter.com/MikePFrank/status/1595370237901393921?t=MuS79wbUABHVUGq_O3kddA&s=19

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Manifold DreamBot

Will OpenAI suggest GPT-4 is AGI?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Daniel Ziegler

bought Ṁ200 NO from 14% to 11%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ41/Ṁ50 NO at 14% (cancelled)

paleink

bought Ṁ25 NO at 15%

sold Ṁ10 NO at 15%

Eugen Grue

bought Ṁ10 NO at 15%

Baba Roro (Baptiste)

bought Ṁ10 NO from 16% to 15%

BTE

bought Ṁ10 NO at 16%

rocketsan

bought Ṁ45 NO from 17% to 16%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ50 NO at 17% (cancelled)

Peter Hurford

bought Ṁ50 NO from 19% to 18%

quadrilateral

sold Ṁ7 YES from 21% to 19%

Svilen Todorov

bought Ṁ5 NO at 21%

Svilen Todorov

bought Ṁ5 NO at 21%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ9 YES at 21% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 26% to 20%

quadrilateral

bought Ṁ10 YES from 24% to 26%

Franklin Baldo

bought Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 24%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22%

Neil Petz

bought Ṁ10 NO at 23%

svk

bought Ṁ10 NO from 24% to 23%

Vincent Luczkow

bought Ṁ10 NO from 25% to 24%

Franklin Baldo

bought Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 25%

moritz basel

bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 YES at 23% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 YES at 18% (cancelled)

yaboi69

bought Ṁ200 NO from 27% to 15%

l8doku

bought Ṁ10 NO from 29% to 27%

Mason

sold Ṁ3 NO from 28% to 29%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 28% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 26% (cancelled)

Zack M. Davis

bought Ṁ45 NO from 33% to 25%

Steven

bought Ṁ27 NO from 39% to 33%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ3 YES at 39% (cancelled)

the pasemi

bought Ṁ35 NO from 49% to 38%

Franklin Baldo

sold Ṁ37 YES from 66% to 49%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 66%

Mason

bought Ṁ5 NO from 69% to 65%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 69% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 NO at 79% (cancelled)

Will Spagnoli

bought Ṁ100 YES from 45% to 84%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ21/Ṁ100 NO at 45% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 NO at 57% (cancelled)

Will Spagnoli

bought Ṁ100 YES from 17% to 68%

the pasemi

bought Ṁ10 NO from 18% to 17%

Franklin Baldo

bought Ṁ10 YES from 13% to 18%

Nikola

bought Ṁ10 NO from 14% to 13%

created limit order for Ṁ5 NO at 24% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ4 YES at 14% (cancelled)

Amit Amin

bought Ṁ50 NO from 21% to 13%

Amit Amin

bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 21%