Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter] | Manifold

Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]

GPT-4 speculation•GPT-4

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Altimor on twitter: Now 60% sure GPT-4 can be a seed AGI, with the right cognitive architecture. Defining seed AGI as a a good enough machine learning engineer / semiconductor designer to recursively self improve

(ht zvi)

Resolves if that happens, or when we get AGI and understand it well enough to claim it's impossible.

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

I have no idea how he came to this conclusion, it doesn't seem particularly plausible.

He's replying to his post "We just had the most mind blowing breakthrough at Lindy. The formative insight of the company, I think. Couldn't be more excited, actually losing sleep over it.".

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Will any open-source model achieve GPT-4 level performance on MMLU through 2024?

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Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

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