Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter] | Manifold

Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]

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Altimor on twitter: Now 60% sure GPT-4 can be a seed AGI, with the right cognitive architecture. Defining seed AGI as a a good enough machine learning engineer / semiconductor designer to recursively self improve

(ht zvi)

Resolves if that happens, or when we get AGI and understand it well enough to claim it's impossible.

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I have no idea how he came to this conclusion, it doesn't seem particularly plausible.

He's replying to his post "We just had the most mind blowing breakthrough at Lindy. The formative insight of the company, I think. Couldn't be more excited, actually losing sleep over it.".

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Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

If GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?

GPT 4.5 Intelligence (higher options)

GPT 4.5 "Intelligence" via artificialanalysis.ai

Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

To what extent is GPT-4 AGI?

Will Llama-4 be (open sourced and) as good as GPT-4?

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026

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