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@MP realmente, agora tá difícil de escapar. Talvez a própria segurança dele prende.
Without passport the likelihood of fleeing should be lower.
https://www.metropoles.com/colunas/guilherme-amado/bolsonaro-decide-que-nao-voltara-ao-brasil-se-tiver-prisao-decretada Bolsonaro says he won't return to Brazil in case of a arrest warrant.
Is this market conditional on a warrant being issued ("if a warrant is issued, the chance of Bolsonaro flying from Brazil (or being already away) is X%")?
If it is not conditional, it shouldn't be greater than the probability of an warrant being issued.
@FranklinBaldo just to make sure we interpret conditionality in the same way, will this market resolve N/A if no warrant is issued by 2023 EOY? Or will it resolve NO?