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O capitão vai pra argentina pra posse. Depois disso, o presidente-eleito pode dar status de refúgio a ele. Seria mto engraçado

@MP não dá ideia

A ideia que o Xandão iria deixar o Bolsonaro escapar é risível

@MP realmente, agora tá difícil de escapar. Talvez a própria segurança dele prende.

Does seeking asylum in a foreign country embassy in Brazil count as a YES?

@BernardoChrispimBaron i don't think so. It still is Brazil.

https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/politica/2023/05/5091867-moraes-determina-apreensao-de-armas-e-passaporte-de-bolsonaro.html

Without passport the likelihood of fleeing should be lower.

https://www.metropoles.com/colunas/guilherme-amado/bolsonaro-decide-que-nao-voltara-ao-brasil-se-tiver-prisao-decretada Bolsonaro says he won't return to Brazil in case of a arrest warrant.

Is this market conditional on a warrant being issued ("if a warrant is issued, the chance of Bolsonaro flying from Brazil (or being already away) is X%")?

If it is not conditional, it shouldn't be greater than the probability of an warrant being issued.

@BernardoChrispimBaron it is conditional, other wise it should resolve YES already

@FranklinBaldo just to make sure we interpret conditionality in the same way, will this market resolve N/A if no warrant is issued by 2023 EOY? Or will it resolve NO?

@BernardoChrispimBaron Resolves NO.

If some arrest warrant is issued and he doesn't return to Brazil in a week, I will resolve it YES

News outlets announced he is going to Mar o lago.

Will Bolsonaro flee Brazil to avoid being arrested by the end of 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition