Background
Manifold Markets has implemented an AI tool that can automatically update market descriptions based on creator comments. This feature aims to help keep market descriptions current and informative. However, there is currently no public data available about the success rate or frequency of comment-to-update conversions.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the percentage of the creator's comments on this market that are successfully incorporated into the market description by Manifold's AI update tool. The percentage will be calculated as:
(Number of comments successfully converted to updates / Total number of relevant comments made by creator) × 100
I will not bet on this market.
I pink promise I will not comment just to influence the results, but I will try to answer all questions about this market.
Considerations
The AI update tool is relatively new and its behavior/effectiveness may change over time
Not all comments may be suitable for description updates, even if they contain relevant information
The success rate may vary depending on factors like comment clarity, relevance, and format
This is a fun and experimental market.
Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Comment Eligibility:
Only comments made before the market closing time will be considered for the AI update tool.
Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Binary Resolution Format Details:
The market will resolve as YES (representing 100%), NO (representing 0%), or as a probability (PROB) in between.
The final resolution outcome will be the PROB calculated using the formula provided in the market description.
1,000@Noit no, I will not respond to every silly comment, but I will try to respond to every relevant comments.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen binary markets in Manifold can resolve NO (what would be 0% in our case), YES (100%) or any PROB in between, so I will resolve this to the PROB calculated with the formulae in the market description.
@FranklinBaldo yes but what does that mean in terms of who gets what mana? I've seen PROB before, but have no clue what it means in terms of mana
@JussiVilleHeiskanen You can think about it like a market that are still open and has high liquidity and you sell your shares to the current probability
@FranklinBaldo that does not explaib how the mana is shared out on resolving. Is the idea to disregard profit
@JussiVilleHeiskanen if you buy at 10% and it goes to 50% you get profit. If you by at 90% and it goes to 50% you take a loss.
@FranklinBaldo my bet is if you had added the word "count " to the end of that sentence it would have created an AI update.