Will I implement my AI markets profitting strategy in H1 2025, and will it work?
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I want to create lots of AI markets because I want there to be a large breadth of questions on the future possible tragectories of AI development to be predictable on prediction markets and I can’t add markets to polymarket or kalshi. I am now manarich so I can afford to do it on manifold, and with my holdings I got loans of ~20k per day so even if I spend all my mana I can make a dozen markets per day.

Recently, I have thought up an additional strategy to pay off the market costs as well. I can bet on these markets (as long as they’re definitely objective) and see if there’s users that disagree with the market price (by for example moving the market a lot). Then i can ask these users if they’d be interested in making larger bets if the situation is right. Assuming I am better than them at pricing these markets, I may make decent profits.

If this strategy works in my opinion, this market will resolve YES.

I welcome advice / criticisms / offers of collaboration on drafting a high quality set of questions. I may resolve this N/A or to a percentage if neither YES or NO seem accurate

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There is absolutely a dearth of good AI markets on Manifold and Metaculus, especially ones which target short timelines. I’m happy to take largeish positions where we disagree.

@AdamK LOL I’d hope to take largeish positions against people I’m confident to reliably beat but yeah i agree about the rarity of good ai markets and they seem very important to me

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