Will I implement my AI markets profitting strategy in H1 2025, and will it work?

1kṀ2051

resolved Jul 1

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I want to create lots of AI markets because I want there to be a large breadth of questions on the future possible tragectories of AI development to be predictable on prediction markets and I can’t add markets to polymarket or kalshi. I am now manarich so I can afford to do it on manifold, and with my holdings I got loans of ~20k per day so even if I spend all my mana I can make a dozen markets per day.

Recently, I have thought up an additional strategy to pay off the market costs as well. I can bet on these markets (as long as they’re definitely objective) and see if there’s users that disagree with the market price (by for example moving the market a lot). Then i can ask these users if they’d be interested in making larger bets if the situation is right. Assuming I am better than them at pricing these markets, I may make decent profits.

If this strategy works in my opinion, this market will resolve YES.

I welcome advice / criticisms / offers of collaboration on drafting a high quality set of questions. I may resolve this N/A or to a percentage if neither YES or NO seem accurate

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@Bayesian Can we get some markets which test AI's mark on society? I really want to bet NO on 20% GDP growth by 2028. Economic measures are the most objective and require the least edge case thinking and subjective definitions (a "good" movie, a "purely language model" beating a GM)

If we get a singularity we're supposed to get 20+% Growth, 20+% unemployment. I'd bet large sums against those (large relative to my portfolio) at decent prices.

@FergusArgyll I'd be surprised if growth and unemployment markets don't already exist on manifold? let me see

would you want a like
"What will be unemployment in YEAR" which has lots of buckets every % or so, and loops through all years from 2025 to 2035 or something? that would be 10 markets that might be valuable idk
and "What will be GDP growth in YEAR"?

@Bayesian That's such an awfully subjective market.

Yes! That's exactly what I want! see my post

https://manifold.markets/post/ai-adjacent-markets-i-wish-existed

it doesn't really work. almost nobody is betting appreciable sums against me. this is so sad

ig it works a bit and is fun but idk

There is absolutely a dearth of good AI markets on Manifold and Metaculus, especially ones which target short timelines. I’m happy to take largeish positions where we disagree.

@AdamK LOL I’d hope to take largeish positions against people I’m confident to reliably beat but yeah i agree about the rarity of good ai markets and they seem very important to me