Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power?
Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power?
27
1kṀ18112040
3%
2030 or earlier
0.6%
2031
0.7%
2032
9%
2033
15%
2034
20%
2035
7%
2036
3%
2037
1.4%
2038
1.4%
2039
1.4%
2040
36%
Will not happen by the end of 2040
Currently, one is planned to start building in 2026, and operation in 2033.
This will resolve to the first year in which a non-experimental, grid-scale reactor will be providing power (over 100 MWe) to the national grid for at least a week continuously.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?
13% chance
By what year will Poland's first military use nuclear weapon be publicized (whether through leak or government release)?
Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2025?
1% chance
Will Poland acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
25% chance
Will Poland get nuclear weapons by the end of 2027?
35% chance
Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2025?
2% chance
When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
Which country will produce the first >1GW nuclear fusion power plant to return energy back to the grid?
Will any reactor of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant be operational in 2028?
88% chance
Will the Palisades Nuclear Generating Station produce power again before 2026?
12% chance