BEGINNING 2 WEEKS AFFER HE IS INAUGURATED - I.E., BEGINNING FEBRUARY 3RD, 2025.

DECIDED BY REALCLEARPOLITICS AVERAGE.

Last term, his approval rating went underwater February 1st, 2017 and never surfaced. Joe Biden’s went underwater August 23rd, 2021 and never surfaced.

If RCP shuts down for whatever reason, then decided by 538’s average.

• Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Detail:

  • The market will only resolve if a RealClearPolitics average for February 3rd (2/3) is available.

  • The current data (average covering 1/20–1/30) will not be used; the resolution depends on being able to hover over the graph and pinpoint the average for 2/3.

  • Resolution will occur as soon as the February 3rd average is clearly posted.

• Update 2025-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Poll Data Clarification:

  • The resolution requires using the RealClearPolitics poll average for February 3rd.

  • If an exact February 3rd average is not identifiable, a poll average from a period beginning on or after February 3rd will be used.

  • A graph based on emerging poll data will be generated once enough polls have been accumulated.