The linked market below (titled "Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?") has averaged roughly 58% in April 2023. This market closes August 15, 2025, but resolves only early October 2025. During resolution, I will use a script (or ask someone to use a script) to compute the average percentage of the linked market (using exact percentages given by the API) between 2025-09-01 00:00:01AM UTC and 2025-09-30 11:59:59PM UTC. If this average is (before rounding) >= 40%, this market resolves YES, otherwise this market resolves NO.
The linked market:
More information:
I think the linked market is overvalued, and so I'm making a "more riskier" version of the market, that resolves significantly earlier than the linked market. I view this market mostly as a form of arbitrage, although I realize that this market is susceptible to market manipulation (of the other market). To minimize the market manipulation risk I made sure that (1) this market closes before the relevant period, so people know how much potential market manipulation they can expect and (2) made sure that we averaged the linked market for a very long time, so that it's hard/expensive to manipulate the linked market for that whole period.
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The linked market is currently at 52%. The AI IMO Gold by 2025 is currently 32%, /Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat . If it happens by 2025, I would expect this market to resolve YES, but if it doesn't, I would expect the 2027 market to update to (.56-.32)/(.100-.32) = .35. So if the market is "rational" then this just comes down to the chance that AI gets gold by 2025.
@BoltonBailey interesting computation! It is assuming that we don't receive any information beyond "no gold medal was achieved until 2025". Any other information could influence the linked market. For example: if an AI gets bronze in 2024 and silver in 2025, I think the linked market will stay high.
I expect that if the linked market will resolve YES (after 2025), this market likely also resolves yes, because I'm assuming there will be some promising progress in the meantime.
@FlorisvanDoorn (note that the referent of "linked market" is different for the mock version)