The linked market below (titled "Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?") has averaged roughly 58% in April 2023. This market closes August 15, 2025, but resolves only early October 2025. During resolution, I will use a script (or ask someone to use a script) to compute the average percentage of the linked market (using exact percentages given by the API) between 2025-09-01 00:00:01AM UTC and 2025-09-30 11:59:59PM UTC. If this average is (before rounding) >= 40%, this market resolves YES, otherwise this market resolves NO.

The linked market:

More information:
I think the linked market is overvalued, and so I'm making a "more riskier" version of the market, that resolves significantly earlier than the linked market. I view this market mostly as a form of arbitrage, although I realize that this market is susceptible to market manipulation (of the other market). To minimize the market manipulation risk I made sure that (1) this market closes before the relevant period, so people know how much potential market manipulation they can expect and (2) made sure that we averaged the linked market for a very long time, so that it's hard/expensive to manipulate the linked market for that whole period.