This market closes May 12th, but resolves after May 19th. During resolution, I will use a script (or ask someone to use a script) to compute the average percentage of the linked market, titled "This market resolves YES with 20%" (using exact percentages given by the API) between 2023-05-13 00:00:01AM UTC and 2023-05-19 11:59:59PM UTC. If this average is (before rounding) >= 25%, this market resolves YES, otherwise this market resolves NO.
The linked market:
More information:
This market is not self-referential, and there is not even a loop of references. This market is an experiment to see if market manipulation is still viable for this case (I predict it is not).
To minimize the market manipulation risk I made sure that (1) this market closes before the relevant period, so people know how much potential market manipulation they can expect and (2) made sure that we averaged the linked market for a pretty long time, so that it's hard/expensive to manipulate the linked market for that whole period.
It is a mock version of this market:
https://manifold.markets/FlorisvanDoorn/will-the-linked-market-average-40-i
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@ShitakiIntaki Yes, that is the idea. And if someone thinks they think they can profit of this market by buying YES, I have set various NO limit orders for them to try.
@FlorisvanDoorn and apparently @MarcusAbramovitch has set up some rather large limit orders in the 20% YES 80% NO referential market.