Resolution criteria
This market resolves to "Yes" if the world GDP grows by an order of magnitude (10x increase) within a 10-year period from market creation. It will resolve to "No" if:
There is insufficient growth for the world GDP to have at least doubled by the end of the 10-year period, OR
At the end of the 10-year period, the world GDP has not increased by a factor of 10 from its starting value.
Background
An order of magnitude increase means the world GDP would need to grow by a factor of 10 (1000%). For context, the highest annual global GDP growth rate recorded in modern history was approximately 6.58% in 1964. The average global GDP growth rate over the past few decades has typically been around 3-4% per year.
Considerations
For the world GDP to double in 10 years, it would require a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.18%. For it to increase by an order of magnitude (10x) would require a sustained CAGR of about 26% over the entire decade, which is unprecedented in global economic history. Such growth would require extraordinary technological breakthroughs, productivity gains, or other economic transformations far beyond historical patterns.
1,000