See here for context:
I don't currently have a step counting device so I may use a GPS distance tracker instead. (Or I might buy or borrow a step counter.) If I walk 80km in a day, that counts.
A day is midnight to midnight.
I'm not currently planning to attempt this this year, while @firstuserhere claims to be planning to do so (argument in favour of betting NO). However, if @firstuserhere is unsuccessful, I don't know if they plan to try again next year (possible argument in favour of betting YES).
My BMI is 19, I'm in my late-twenties-to-early-thirties, I ran a marathon 7 years ago. I'm quite fit, but I don't do much walking or running at the moment. I am moderately injury-averse, so would probably abort an attempt if I thought I was in danger of hurting myself badly.
If neither of us do the walk by 26th November 2024, market resolves N/A.
I expect to bet YES in this market. (Get a bit of fun competition going.) I think it would be reasonably ok for me to bet NO as well, because I can't force NO resolution, but if people object I won't do it.
I can't think of a good way of posting proof without giving away location information. Open to ideas, but if you bet, be prepared to just have to take my word for it.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ210 | |
| 2 | Ṁ139 | |
| 3 | Ṁ65 | |
| 4 | Ṁ47 | |
| 5 | Ṁ25 |
People are also trading
@HenriThunberg I think that's a correct interpretation of the wording of the title, but I don't want to do that for three reasons:
I'm not sure I want to commit to actually doing this. As you can see from my bets on @firstuserhere's market, I don't have high confidence in them doing it. It's a hard thing. Quite likely neither of us do it. I wouldn't be betting YES on myself at 40ish% if I'd defined it as you suggest.
I think it's quite fun making it a competition, rather than a simple "personal goal" market.
I would like to give myself the option of betting NO if the market probability gets high. I don't think it's reasonable to bet NO on a market that I can force to resolve NO simply by not trying.
Right, up to you to set terms and at least in the description this is very clear. Thanks for communicating your reasoning.
I may use a GPS distance tracker instead.
One thing to keep in mind for an attempt like this, many GPS tracking devices will not actually last that long on a single battery charge. Carrying an extra battery will weigh you down and make it more difficult! Etc.
But at the same time, there is NO reason to spend $1000 just to get the "right gear" for a challenge/goal like this. I think we can trust your judgment.
@Eliza another option might be to plan out a route and use Google maps to measure the distance.
I may also ask friends to support me by bringing me a battery (I'll probably need someone to bring me food and water anyway). There are ways. :)
Energy gels tend to be sugars repackaged in a dense format. Be careful to consume them with the correct amount of fluid to avoid GI distress or dehydration. There is no one-size-fits-all approach but generally speaking, carbohydrates -> good. If you are interested in some of this, this guy did a fair job of introducing several concepts:
https://www.alextran.org/diy-sports-drink/
You will need to keep track of your energy expenditure and input fuel to help replenish. The rate of energy use for walking is not terribly high, though, so you can use whatever form of energy is most convenient for you. Stopping for a real meal is not as 'bad' for long walking as it would be for higher intensity exercise, but you should consider what types of food you consume (be wary of hard to digest high-fat meals, for example....focus on carbohydrates).
@Eliza Oh, good to know. Shows that I should do some research on this myself. I just said energy gels as thats what I know cyclists to consume during long rides (though i've used chocolate in the past on rides >50kms). Thanks for the article, will give it a read.
However, if @firstuserhere is unsuccessful, I don't know if they plan to try again next year (possible argument in favour of betting YES).
I am! If I fail the attempt this year, expect a new market on January 2 from me!