What percentage of the vote will Count Binface win in the Clacton by-election?

Question

Leader of the Recyclons and perennial by-election candidate Count Binface is running as the unity candidate to unseat some guy pulling a silly stunt.

[image]Typically, the Count achieves 0.1-1% of the vote when he stands, but could this be his best performance yet? Is the 99p price cap on 99 flakes finally within reach??

Square bracket denotes that the endpoint is included, normal bracket denotes that endpoint is excluded. Market resolves based on the actual fraction of votes, not the rounded percentage reported in the media. So if he wins 9.99% and the media rounds that to 10.0%, this market resolves to [0,10), not [10,20).

I will bet in this market. Resolves NA if no by election takes place in Clacton before the end of 2026.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, [20,35), followed by [10,20) and [0,10) are most likely. See the market for live updates (23 traders, as of Jul 18, 2026).

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