Background The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest is a tournament hosted on Metaculus featuring questions about events in 2025. https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2025/
Last year some bots and/or hard working humans replicated all the questions as markets here. I cannot find the same for this years contest
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if
1) every single question from the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest has a corresponding market created on Manifold before February 1st, 2024.
2) The resolution Criteria for each market/question is identical as the Metaculus version.
IMPORTANT This market focuses on the existence of corresponding Manifold markets, not on their eventual resolution outcomes. Each Manifold market must state in its description that it commits to resolving based on the same criteria as the original Metaculus question for the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest. The Manifold market does not have to necessarily resolve in the same way as the Metaculus version, but the resolution criteria must be copied identically, or directly link to a place where the criteria are displayed. This is to ensure direct comparability and the ability to independently verify if the required market exists without getting involved in protracted resolution processes and waits for official resolution from Metaculus (in a year from now...).
The market will resolve NO if even one question from the contest lacks a corresponding Manifold market by that date.
1,000
3.00@FergusArgyll People can also bet NO to hedge against the disappointment. That means more Mana for those who do it. 😉