Resolution criteria

• This market will resolve to YES if Count Binface (Jon Harvey) receives between 25.00% and 40.00% (inclusive) of the valid votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election.

• It will resolve to NO if his vote share is strictly less than 25.00% or strictly greater than 40.00%.

• The vote share percentage will be calculated as: (Votes cast for Count Binface / Total valid votes cast) * 100, rounded to two decimal places.

• If Count Binface does not stand as a candidate in the by-election, or if the by-election is cancelled or uncontested, this market will resolve to NO.

• The primary source of truth for resolution will be the official results published by Tendring District Council. If the official site is unavailable, credible national news outlets (such as BBC News) or the official 2026 Clacton by-election Wikipedia page will be used to verify the figures.

Background

• In July 2026, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage resigned his parliamentary seat for Clacton to trigger a by-election, seeking to put allegations regarding undeclared financial donations to his constituents.

• In response, the major political parties—including Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party—announced a boycott of the contest, declining to field candidates against him.

• Satirical candidate Count Binface (portrayed by comedian Jon Harvey) subsequently announced his intention to stand. Due to the absence of candidates from the major parties, political observers note the contest may effectively become a direct two-way race between Farage and Binface, substantially elevating the potential vote share for the parody candidate.

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