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Not that the resolution will necessarily be incorrect, but it should be based on past data not future estimates. Forecaster has been proven wrong over and over again so we should have waited to have clear data on the energy usage in 2024, which we haven't still got, to my knowledge.

@FUTURESEARCH I believe this definitively resolves to "No".

In lieu of reading the IEA report again (because I'm lazy), see below source:

Bloomberg: We’re Burning More Coal Than Ever Thanks to China

• "The IEA now estimates that global coal demand surged to an all-time high of 8,771 million metric tons this year, up 1% from 2023, as electricity demand rose faster than expected...."

• "Renewables are doing some of that job, but coal remains, the go-to fuel to power the energy transition."

• "Worse, the IEA revised higher its historical data, so the increase comes from a significantly higher baseline than before. The world is consuming a lot more coal than we thought – and therefore, it’s polluting the atmosphere a lot more than we thought, too."

IEA is now back to saying 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-mid-year-update-july-2024

...then it'll be 2026, 2027 etc.

Just joking... but in all seriousness, even with hydropower reclaiming TWh after droughts and whatnot, renewables are still not able to pass coal - that was my only doubt in owning "Yes" shares in that hydro could push it over the line. That being said, there's still a chance this could resolve "No".

May be a tad misleading to have the “Nuclear” hashtag on this question, I don’t believe IEA counts it as renewable.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 65%.

doing nothing. My probability is 65%, market is 65%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 65%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 65%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 45%, market is 64%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 60%, market is 64%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 64%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 64%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 65%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 65%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 45%, market is 65%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 85%, market is 65%.

Looking at Our World in Data, I get 10,200 TWh of electricity from coal in 2022, with renewables accounting for ~8,500 TWh. IEA now predicts "Higher renewable growth than overall electricity demand growth is likely to push global coal consumption on a downward trajectory. This would imply that coal is likely to peak in 2023. " (https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2023/demand)

And renewable energy in terms of solar and wind, has been growing by 30+% per year recently, suggesting around 300+ TWh growth in solar and 600+ TWh growth in wind, in 2023. If that growth rate didn't compound, just stayed at +900 TWh for renewables in 2024, and coal didn't peak, just stayed where it is, then 2024 would be at 10,200 twh coal, 10,300 TWh renewables.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 60%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 60%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 60%.

doing nothing. My probability is 60%, market is 60%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 61%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 61%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 20%, market is 61%.