Will renewable energy sources pass coal power plants as world's largest electricity source in 2024?
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2025
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Resolution based on IEA. Having previously said it would be in 2025, the IEA now thinks it could happen in 2024, “as a result of the accelerated pace of renewable capacity additions” and “the plateauing of electricity generation from coal.”

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May be a tad misleading to have the “Nuclear” hashtag on this question, I don’t believe IEA counts it as renewable.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 65%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 65%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 45%, market is 64%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 60%, market is 64%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 64%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 64%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 65%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 65%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 45%, market is 65%.

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Looking at Our World in Data, I get 10,200 TWh of electricity from coal in 2022, with renewables accounting for ~8,500 TWh. IEA now predicts "Higher renewable growth than overall electricity demand growth is likely to push global coal consumption on a downward trajectory. This would imply that coal is likely to peak in 2023. " (https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2023/demand)

And renewable energy in terms of solar and wind, has been growing by 30+% per year recently, suggesting around 300+ TWh growth in solar and 600+ TWh growth in wind, in 2023. If that growth rate didn't compound, just stayed at +900 TWh for renewables in 2024, and coal didn't peak, just stayed where it is, then 2024 would be at 10,200 twh coal, 10,300 TWh renewables.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 60%.

🤖

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 60%.

🤖

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 60%.

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doing nothing. My probability is 60%, market is 60%.

🤖

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 61%.

🤖

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 61%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 20%, market is 61%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 90%, market is 61%.

🤖

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 58%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 90%, market is 58%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 58%.

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