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The Chinese government has placed considerable political pressure on domestic companies to achieve self-sufficiency in chipmaking. Can they figure out the key chipmaking tech within the next year? They are making progress on a 28nm lithography machine.
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/semiconductors-will-remain-central-to-americas-tech-rivalry-with-china
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Based on the information gathered, it is unlikely that China will announce the development of its own extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine in 2024. There are several factors contributing to this assessment:
Technological Complexity: Developing an EUV lithography machine is a highly complex task. China is currently exploring the use of a new extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light source, with Tsinghua University making strides in steady-state microbunching (SSMB) technology. This technology could potentially create an EUV light source more powerful than existing ones, but it is still in the early stages of development.
Integration and Development Challenges: The integration of a new light source technology within existing EUV systems adds further complexity and potential delays. There are numerous components required for an EUV light source, such as gases, light collectors, amplifiers, and magnetic field technology. China has faced challenges in developing these components, and experts predict a minimum of two years to create these light sources.
Alternative Strategies: Despite these efforts, it's reported that China’s self-sufficiency in chip manufacturing is still significantly behind schedule, and they continue to import a substantial amount of semiconductors annually. However, China is also exploring other avenues, such as advanced packaging techniques, which could potentially increase chip efficiency without the need for the most powerful equipment. This focus might divert resources from the development of an EUV lithography machine.
Given these considerations, the odds of China announcing its own EUV lithography machine in 2024 seem low. However, it's important to note that the field of semiconductor technology is rapidly evolving, and unexpected advancements or strategic shifts could alter this outlook.