Executive summary: https://www.axios.com/2023/01/03/private-human-spaceflight-regulations
Report to Congress: https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/DRAFT%20RTC%20Safety%20Framework%20for%20Commercial%20HSF%20Activities.pdf
Previously extended by the the FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012 and the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act.
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It was most recently extended to Jan 1, 2024:
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12508
Resolves Yes.
@FIGBERTFIGBERT Can this resolve? If not, when will we know the answer? Should the close date be extended?
Apparently, it has been extended three months, so this should probably resolve YES.
@FIGBERTFIGBERT Please help with some clarification...
It looks like they will renew it but it's unlikely to be renewed before it expires. Can you clarify how this would affect resolution of the question if it expires temporarily but does get renewed? In other words if it is not renewed by Oct. 1 does this resolve YES/NO? If temporary renewal is acceptable, how long after Oct. 1 would you wait for a renewal to be passed?
@FIGBERTFIGBERT hasn't bet in 8 months... looks like I won't get clarification before the market closes so I will sell my shares.
"
A federal moratorium on commercial spaceflight safety regulations should be extended to support more innovation in the space sector, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz said on Wednesday, ahead of the scheduled expiration of a years-old ban on Oct. 1.
"
"
"It's very important that we don't sit on our hands and begin to prepare for the future," Kelvin Coleman, head of the FAA's commercial space office, said at the conference in Washington on Wednesday. He added an extension seemed likely.
"From what we're hearing, it'll probably get extended," he said.
"
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Plenty of lobbying for an extension ... but will it fail because of hyper-partisanship and short time frames?
https://spacenews.com/regulatory-uncertainty-as-commercial-human-spaceflight-takes-off/
"
It’s unclear if the current restriction can be extended. The House and Senate have been working on their versions of reauthorization legislation for the FAA, but neither currently includes any language about the learning period. The House Science Committee is working on a separate commercial space bill that could address the issue. However, any bill faces long odds of passage before Oct. 1.
“We have a divided Congress, so the ability to move an extension through may be a bit challenging this year,” said Caryn Schenewerk, president of CS Consulting who previously worked on regulatory issues for Relativity Space and SpaceX, during the webinar. Failure to achieve an extension, she said, may be less of an active decision by Congress than a side effect of broader debates between the Republican-led House and Democratic-led Senate.
"
@parhizj 74 days until Oct. 1. I think there isn't enough time... so I am increasing my NO bet.
https://payloadspace.com/rand-releases-human-spaceflight-regulation-report/
"The FAA has suggested a long list of indicators to assess the readiness of the commercial industry, including questions about the reason people want to buy tickets to space, the size of the tourism industry, and the extent to which standards have been developed. Most people interviewed, though, thought these indicators were vague and unhelpful—”perhaps deliberately so,” the report notes."
"the research team made five recommendations:
Allow the moratorium to end in October as currently planned
Allot enough funding to the FAA to effectively develop new regulations
Proceed with Space Aerospace Rulemaking Committees
Continue to develop voluntary consensus standards across the industry
Consider limited informal rulemaking"
Based on this I'm betting NO, but since I only spent a tiny amount of time researching this so far I am betting conservatively at the moment. Part of this bet is based on me guessing this will not be a strongly bi-partisan issue given solely how much of a lightning rod Elon Musk is, and I anticipate it won't end up passing -- but I don't have any actual information on this -- only intuition.
On another note, I find it odd that rockets might be regulated going into space before submersibles diving in international waters.
