Will the Asian Elephant (Elephas maximus) become extinct in the current century?
11
45
1k
2099
28%
chance

This market is about the extinction risk of the Asian Elephant species in the current century, regardless of subspecies. The market will resolve YES if the Asian Elephant is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_elephant

IUCN assessment

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/7140/45818198

Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.

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Here a first comparison of the extinction risk of 20 species, for which I have set up markets yesterday and today. I have classified them in ten risk classes.


0-9%: Ultra Low Risk

None

10-19%: Low Risk

None

20-29%: Minor Risk

Chimpanzee

30-39%: Moderate Risk

Bonobo, Black Rhinoceros, Lion

40-49%: Substantial Risk

White Rhinoceros, Asian Elephant, African Savanna Elephant, Western Gorilla, Tiger, Leopard, Jaguar

50-59%: Significant Risk

Indian Rhinoceros, African Forest Elephant, Sumatran Orangutan, Eastern Gorilla, Snow Leopard

60-69%: High Risk

Tapanuli Orangutan, Bornean Orangutan

70-79%: Severe Risk

Sumatran Rhinoceros

80-89%: Critical Risk

Javan Rhinoceros

90-100%: Ultra High Risk

None

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